Future Output Expectations Slump to Near Post-Pandemic Lows in G4 Economies
From 2016 through early 2019, business optimism about future output remained relatively stable, fluctuating around the 65–68 range. However, the onset of the pandemic in 2020 triggered a historic plunge, with expectations falling to around 40. A robust recovery followed in 2021, pushing expectations to a high of approximately 72.
Since then, optimism has steadily eroded. Data shows future output expectations dropped to around 65 in 2022, 62 in 2023, and hovered near 63 into early 2024. Now, April 2025 has witnessed a further decline, with the index slipping to near 60 — reflecting mounting concerns over economic growth prospects, global uncertainty, and possibly tightening financial conditions.
The G4 economies' weakening outlook suggests businesses are becoming more cautious about expansion and investment. Persistent inflationary pressures, geopolitical tensions, and sluggish global demand likely continue to weigh heavily on sentiment.